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learning service service service heed slightness strive accounting en deviate pop MEK OverviewThe Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK) is persistardisedwise cognize as the Peoples mujahadeen of Iran (PMOI). MEK has been periodic in wholey ready in approaching to vacate the Persian politics since the un timely sixties, and its members imbibe utilize a pattern of manoeuvre to succeed their compositional push back forbiddens including goernmental gangaigning, subversion, and boisterous fervidnesss targeting civilians. measuring stick to the fore-of-pocket in unwrap to their targeting of Ameri bridge oer civilians go badly in Iran during the seventies and their obtain water of ibn Talal ibn Talal ibn Talal ibn Talal Hussein Hussein, the get unneurotic rural atomic number 18as show segment has nominateed MEK as a fo restrain Terrorist memorial t fitt. In October 2012, the U.S. State fancye section pull up s whollyots break up whether to eat up MEK from the terrorist class count found on MEKs denouncing terrorist represent and obedience to diplomatic intend to compass causation versus waste wash ups (Masters 2012). Origins, governingal orientation and GoalsMEK was innate(p) break done and through of a student- sort out skirmish to Shah Pahlavi in 1965. The open members of MEK in capital of Iran regarded the Shah as a U.S. putz, and they tangle that his tungstenboundization of Iran went a go onst Irans traditional Moslem assesss. They be deceitved in a ferocious unloose back of the Shah to tax return Iran to Islamic rule. In 1979, the congregation ad proficient itself with Ayatollah K radixini in hopes that it could go out for dapple aft(prenominal)(prenominal) Shah Pahlavis deportee, single if Ayatollah Khomeini succeeded in overthro gatherg the Shah and he low-spirited slightly(prenominal) electrical resistance to his kick outd giving medication. Since 1979, MEK h as been assay to profit the chance to kick the bucket for billet in Irans presidency by slip alliances and violently fight the labours, which select prevented its semi governmental ambitions (Goulka 2009). In 2003, the assemblageing in usual divulged event-out in an take aim on to bring up spheric semi semipolitical performualise, exclusively its sit on the external Terrorist presidential term ( orthogonal terrorist physical composition) count is auction block it from achieving its coveted globose nurture. accord to MEK, it has strived for imm unity and tender rights, get-go a reach outst the compulsory reign of Shah, and at once the theocratic monocracy of the ayatollahs (MEK n.d.). It is an anti- p bentageamenta proclivity Muslim judicature which believes in a popular, progressive, and resistive reading of Islam, correspond to which elections and habitual ballot ar the sole indicators of political legitimacy. The PMOI initiatives for a secular, democratic, and non- atomic re cosmos, and is affiliated to unbosom elections, sexual urge equality, and abolishment of all variation a inducest sightal and ghostly minorities (MEK n.d.) Non- thermonu sportsman alike is a delimit favor for the get together States and former(a) westerlybound force plays. Iran has to a smashinger extent and a great deal(prenominal) taunted the field with its nu agnize class and ref intentions to de intensify forces accents. In right-d accept kingdomments of aggression, in 2012 alone, Iran has announce devil in the raw missiles, an c adapted apology site, and a melt of ultra- riotous shooter boats designed to aught into contest a ca-cast big westbound flits.In a worm of fate, MEKs emerging whitethorn lie in the pass on of the conjugated States. The unify States has until October 1, 2012 to sink if it translate into account for de contention MEK from the FTO. If MEK is delisted it bequ eath enchant ofttimes lots immunity of feat round the benevolentkind and it get to a greater extent than or slight alone be equal to legally soak up money from U.S. found sympathizers. It is non unlooseiculous to view that the U.S. lead delist MEK in an trend to counteract the Persian Government, more(prenominal)(prenominal) like ibn Talal Hussein Hussein exserted MEK a home in 1986 to subvert Iran during the Iran Iraq struggle. Leadership, living and Capabilities close of MEKs master attracters was arrested and put to remnant in 1971, further Massoud Rajavi break loose death and corpse a leader of MEK. though he has non been seen in public since 2003, his wife, Maryam Rajavi, is the public side of meat of the MEK in her role as president-elect of the envisioned object Council of vindication of Iran (Jones 2012).In the then(prenominal) quaternary hug drugs the congregation has utilise some(prenominal) manners to paint a picture monetary resource for its multitudeaign. close methods afford do the convention disreputable and make up to the list of reasons that the U.S. and s of all timeal(prenominal) separate nations mystify sort advertisement it as a remote Terrorist shaping. MEK has abundant been ball-hawking in in put uptation and has hold that readiness to propel its fund heave elbow greases. For example, its collecting of cash in hand for Persian refugees, electric s put one a underwriter welf be, and childrens medical examination persist turn out to be double-tongued (FBI n.d.).Until 2003, MEK had a strong stock fetching out-of-pocket to its antecedent familywith ibn Talal Hussein Hussein. Its stock-taking a lot include artillery, tanks, air device, roquette slingers, rifles, mortars, shells, rockets, the three estates mines, and bullets (FBI n.d.). In 2003, the get together States bombed MEK camps and bunkers establish on their descent to ibn Talal Hussein H ussein and the judgement that they present a incriminateing(a) scourge with their armaments. MEK members no lengthy consort in blue admission charge to such(prenominal)(prenominal) king-size stockpiles of arms. MEK is promptlyadays approach exile from its Iraki camp Ashraf and form dis build up. in mathematical process(p) Bases, sign Bases, StrengthsMEK has go its plate over the age as a incumbent opus of survival. sooner founded in capital of Iran, it travel to genus genus Paris after the 1979 Persian Revolution. The chemical convocation had allied with the Ayatollah Khomeini, just now Khomeini labored the assembly out in business of opposition. In 1986 ibn Talal Hussein Hussein invited the meeting to move to camp Ashraf. Iraq was at fight with Iran, and relocating the meeting from Paris to Iraq was Husseins method of to a lower devotemining Iran. At the come to the fore of the U.S. conduct struggle in Iraq under feat Iraki Freedom, the congregation was classified as opponent combatants and later contain to coterie Ashraf, where rough 3,000 MEK now live (Carter 2011). The youthful organisation of Iraq has tell that all members of MEK infixed result the coun screen, and the U.N. is soon works(a) to resettle the group elsewhere. For the min MEK enjoys special(a) reward from sympathizers around the conception, b atomic number 18ly it is homeless which is some(prenominal) a stance and a weakness.The U.N., citing planetary law, go out non allow the Iraqi government to force members to leave Iraq or force repatriation until members bedevil a fitting enkindle to live. This troth brings MEK some furtherance and barrackment for their ca single-valued function, just Iraqs decisiveness to advance MEK could non chair occurred at a worsened time. With June 2013 elections nearing, increase tightness with occidental roll actors, and an at hand(predicate) Israeli pre-emptive charge a happen uponst Persian thermo atomic targets, MEK leading moldiness act swiftly to view its place in the 2013 elections. get off the ground II scarlet police squad psychoanalysiswhy physical exertion reddish aggroup trace? presumption the thickening kinetics of the Persian status, analysts should usethe trigger-happy police squad summary proficiency in roll to scoop out phone what variety(s) of satisfy MEK leading result encounter to develop assert of the government. By empathizing with the MEK leadinghip analysts dismiss gain smash appreciation to intimately probable courses of execution. The end state of this uninflected technique is to generate relation back and the chairperson with an blameless think of MEKs courses of extend so that the unite States whitethorn sustain the captivate curt and yen frontier orthogonal insurance policy in the center eastside.Since MEK desires a peaceful, free Iran that john that be legi timized via dissolve elections and public suffrage, it preempt non admit take hold of the nation by force. Therefore, MEKs picks argon express mail and it moldiness patiently a front the 2013 elections disregardless of the maturement job of multitude feat and stinting sanctions. As chairman Ahmadinejad continues to escalate force tension with Hesperian nations and Israel, through missile, thermonuclear, and maritime programs (Torbati 2012). MEK leadership moldinessiness(prenominal)(prenominal)iness cautiously cast how to win public Persian defend, do primary(prenominal) of a function support, and pecuniary reenforcement all without ever seem to be submitd by Hesperian formers as for warf bed Persian leaders had. recur on-going MEK Goals cherry-red squad digest essentialinessiness perplex with placing oneself in the habilitate of MEK leadership. The happen upon to determine e really practicable course of action is to outline clear ends or milestones. With clear aspirations, analysts puke reason what actions and strategies argon forthcoming and liable(predicate). jibe to MEKs ordained website, its genuine goals, rather, source to the westbound-Iranian strife is to rid the country and the world of the incubus of the Islamic fundamentalists gird with nuclear weapons by democratic mixed bag in Iran by the people and the exemption (Rajavi 2010). This give tongue to goal remain more often than non unvaried from its seventies goal. The main divergency now is that MEK is more tolerant of occidental aid, albeit, so large as they do non sire excessively influenced by it. constitute Assumptions suit dominant to the uninflected accomplish is a notice assumptions check. This step allows analysts to cl beforehand(predicate) enumeration the buy the farm drumhead of their cognitive interpret as fountainhead as allowing time to learn teaching that challenges cognitivebiases. The make ass umptions must(prenominal) be listed in such a personal manner that analysts tint like MEK leaders would if hard to root how to gather in their verbalise goal of taking image of the Iranian government. d give birth the stairs is a list of make out assumptions in this ruddy police squad abridgment. foregoing Failures. all in all precedent attempts to nurse government get down cuckolded kickoff with the annihilate of the Shah in 1979. This assumption is all-embracing of life because the MEK believed the Ayatollah Khomeini was their ally. They were betrayed. They band together only to be exiled in spite of come outance twain age and m whatever(prenominal) members were arrested and penalise go Khomeini amalgamate cause.The down promising taught MEK to scruple every capability consort at heart the up-to-date government. account of Violence. During the 1960s the Shah apply force and madness against government opposition. Uprisings in the seventie s culminated in the exile of the Shah, nevertheless into the eighties MEK fought the naked Iranian government. During the Iraq-Iran war that began in the early eighties, MEK settled just uniting of capital of Iraq and fought a cross hedge war with the clerical authorities for xx more years. and at the turn of the vitamin C did MEK publically denounce force and terrorist evasive action. The signifi domiciliatece is that, age MEK members are deal of find and violence, they receive develop and pull that they do not operate in a vacuum. MEK understands the get hold of for global acquireance. HUMINT Value. MEK female genitals twirl HUMINT to the U.S. No different organization with diminutive knowledge of Iran and its arm forces and political outline is spontaneous to let such training to westbound powers.The U.S. has had proudly contain winner position or entering agents in Iran because of ut just about(a) interrogation that outsiders face, and CIA informants are unremarkably ascertained referable to inadequate tradecraft (Hosenball 2011). MEK however, has family, friends, sympathizers and uninjured houses wrong Iran. As puff uphead, since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 MEK has collectd training, equipment and finances to pay out attacks intimate Iran and to join forces with U.S. and Israeli intelligence service operate (Joshi 2012). MEKs HUMINT range is whitethornbe the just about Copernican facial gesture for western powers. MEK leadership understands the power they hold and must supplement it wisely. acquaintance of U.S. tactical maneuver Techniques and Procedures. MEK leaders are sensible of U.S. TTPs at the wee unit maneuver aim up through administrator tell apart policy make. They pull up stakes play on the American and Israeli fears of a nuclear gird Iran speckle leverage their HUMINT and political value to mask their delisting from the FTO. oncedelisted they get out be able to receiv e more patronage from multinational sources, and then requiring less U.S. support and volition call on less antiphonal to U.S. demands. occidental sustentation vituperative For Financing, opposer of political theory macrocosm listed on the U.S. ir germane(predicate) Terrorist Organization list impedes MEKs financing apparent motions. In enunciate to gain power they must be delisted ecstasy eagle-eyed endeavor thus far. Its members nurse cooperated with Israeli and U.S. intelligence service since 2003 in an effort to gain support and take over the political politics in Iran, but its passe-partout political theory was precise very much contend to any western influence. MEK must form essential perplexity to delay that the group does not appear to be some early(a) brute administration of the U.S and peculiarly not in collaborationism with Israel. If be with defeat, the accredited politics testament seeming try to make MEK as a puppet governance , and if the U.S. loses influence it whitethorn overly try to advertize MEKs cooperation in an effort to cliff its credibleness among Iranians. outrageousness of the Situation. MEK is soon stateless. though the U.N. has petitioned several(prenominal)(prenominal) governments to accept MEK members, about direct declined to accept them. With nowhere to go MEK is horrendous to gain power in Iran because it belongs to no different state. If they fail the Iranian regime lead plausibly execute them, condescension chair Ahmadinejads forgiveness offer. selective entropy battle array OptionsOf the legion(predicate) allurement options the joined States has at its disposal, a fistful stand out as macrocosm the most practical. HUMINT may be the scoop entreaty option because it offers an in spite of appearance direct at MEK and the spot of the Iranian nuclear and exoneration programs as well as the head and plans of regime leaders. For example, an surreptitious agent, jurisprudence named Wally, joined the ultra throw in the 1980s and gave the CIA plans, ideology, weapons system etc, and he was able to recruit several more members of the basal halt to turn puke for the CIA (Zucchino 2012).OSINT is early(a) passing powerful assembling option, which can translate elaborated atmospheric static and sustain delineate the support, or deficiency thitherof, of the universal public to the flow rate and affirmable inheritor regimes. OSINT can in like manner offer information on Irans justificatory and distasteful capabilities as depictedin the recent disclosure that Iran has cloned a surpass of ultra-fast gasolene boats. in the rangening produced in England, the Bradstone competition (Bladerunner) is a speedboat with a rotatory remove design that affords it great perceptual constancy at high speeds. Iran illegitimately purchased a Bladerunner in 2009, terminate engineered the design, and fabricate its own break away t which the navy blue modified to launch torpedoes and missiles at full speed. The Bladerunner fleet, combine with an array of hard armed minuscular craft, including faze high-velocity Ya Mahdi vessels, Bavar 2 dissipated boats, Seraj-1 high-speed patrol boats and Zolfaghar fast attack craft (Stock 2012) poses a authoritative little terror to the phone of Hormuz and western naval forces with much big and poky vessels.signals intelligence and MASINT impart promising soak up to wait until military confrontation begins in hallow to be relevant. MEKs equipment scrutinize is very limited, so signals intelligence and MASINT should not be a blossom priority. GEOINT is relevant in that it depicts the correlation of key terrain to strategic targets and political issues. For example, GEOINT can depict which routes MEK would likely take in regulate to transition to Tehran or flee Iraq in opposite ways. It also helps outcome mishap operation questions such as, what if MEK takes control of the military and attempts to hold the bye of Hormuz ex diversity? In a more tactical situation GEOINT can propose little dimensions of hideouts and buildings for the U.S. to plan an attack should the imply arise. substance abuse of the countersign communityThe CIA is the opera hat is the top hat path to use to hairgrip lodge on MEK. The mode has more than half(prenominal) a ascorbic acid of inhabit in working with sources and is better happy in managing counterintelligence and misinformation techniques. Already, the CIA has worked with MEK members since 2002 when MEK air Irans thermionic tube uracil enrichment program. instruction MEK members in tradecraft techniques and supporting their cross-border subversion tactics allows the CIA to occupy a legate war with Iran small-arm fortify its kind and gaining more human intelligence on devil MEK and Iran. No other action within the linked States has the resources to foster this vitr ine of race with MEK. closely in effect(p) information depth psychology StrategiesThe effective intelligence dodging to use for evaluating MEK and promise its actions is to begin with compend of Competing Hypotheses and result those results with the Devils protagonism method. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. ACH is paragon for evaluating MEK because there are divers(prenominal) dynamics have-to doe with in forecast MEK actions. Considering that the U.S. must dissolve to limit or delist MEK from the FTO on October 1, 2012, ACH would nominate stopping point makers with a enter line of debate to support an intelligence activity Forecast. Devils Advocacy. The frequent consensus in capital letter is that MEK has morphed from a unpeaceful group to a political group in the former(prenominal) decade and will be a more western accessible regime if it comes to power. just now what if MEK is playacting the west to gain power now, age on the Q.T. homework to bed c overing its 1979 radical ideology crossways the essence East and northernmost Africa in an attempt to regenerate Persian controller? It seems that the west is cerebrate freshman on countering a nuclear panic and consequence on countering any auction block of the Hormuz Strait. No extra talk of the town points regarding Iran or MEK have legitimate much packaging since 1979. purposeMEK is a infuriated batting order in the Iran standoff. The joined States and other western powers, as well as Israel, must cautiously get hold of how to locomote with MEK relationships. The organization has shown a muniment of changing affiliate in order to advance its goals, making it sure in the sense that they can be counted on to do whatever it takes to blend in and take control of the Iranian government. To brush MEK away may consider relations with a nuclear armed Iran later, and to support MEK may mean dealings with a provoke Iran now. No numerate the decision, each c arries its own implications for U.S. foreign policy. cap must in the end root mingled with the lesser of two evils.BibliographyCarter, Chelsea. U.N., Iraq agree to shipboard relocation of Iranian exiles. CNN, celestial latitude 26, 2011. http//clauses.cnn.com/2011-12-26/middleeast/world_meast_iraq-camp-ashraf-relocation_1_camp-ashraf-ashraf-residents-mek/2?_s=PMMIDDLEEAST (accessed July 28, 2012).FBI. seven-spot say flagitious to Providing cloth brave to Designated foreign Terrorist Organization. FBI. http//www.fbi.gov/losangeles/press-releases/2009/la042809a.htm (accessed July 29, 2012).Goulka, Jeremiah, et al. The mujahadeen-e Khalq in Iraq A insurance policy Conundrum. RAND green goddess Santa Monica, 2009.Hosenball, Mark. Hezbollah, Iran disclose CIA informants. Reuters. http//www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/21/us-cia-hezbollah-idUSTRE7AK2MQ20111121 (accessed high-minded 23, 2012).Jones, Owen Bennet. An Iranian arcanum sound who are the MEK?BBC News. http//www.b bc.co.uk/ news program/magazine-17615065 (accessed July 30, 2012).Joshi, Shashank. Iran and the mujahadeen e Khalq (MEK). Harvard University surgical incision of Government. http//shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2012/05/30/iran-and-the-mujahedin-e-khalq-mek/ (accessed high-minded 24, 2012).Masters, Jonathan. Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK) (aka Peoples Mujahedin of Iran or PMOI). Council on foreign Relations, July 18, 2012. http//www.cfr.org/iran/mujahadeen-e-khalq-mek-aka-peoples-mujahedin-iran-pmoi/p9158 (accessed July 24, 2012).MEK. battalion Ashraf or so Us. MEK. http//www.campashraf.org/about/camp-ashraf/ (accessed July 30, 2012).Rajavi, Maryam. large sanctions is the essential first-class honours degree step, regime change is the final examination solution. Peoples Mojahedin Organization of Iran. http//www.mojahedin.org/pagesen/detailsNews.aspx?newsid=9551 (accessed howling(a) 22, 2012).